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[Duurzaamlijst] COP-6 and a climate saving reafforestation strategy
It seems highly relevant to start COP-6 with a review of
recent findings about the probable development of climate in
21th century, with a view on
(i). "business as usual scenario"
(ii). the Kyoto Protocols
(iii). A conscientious approach to stewardship on nature
based on the precautionary principle.
Others may write more about (i) and (ii), as UNFCCC has
recently stated that global temperatures are now expected
to rise 10.5 degrees (F?) by the end of this century.
So I will restrict myself to (iii), considering this increase
unacceptable with a view on the temperature dependance
of hurricanes (will be born in areas with ocean surface
temperatures over 27 degrees Celsius), reef bleaching
and dieoff (typically at temperatures above 30 degrees
Celsius) and melting of Arctic Polar Ice (to be a fact within
20 years from now)
And even worse: the higher the temperature of ocean
surface, the less O2 and CO2 can remain in solution.
So if ocean life dies, CO2 will gas out to atmosphere.
The scientific basis of these facts might be reviewed
in the first three days of COP-6, and after that a discussion
about the business as usual approach, the effectiveness
of the Kyoto Protocals and the relevance of Precautionary
principle might start.
A basic problem at COP-6 is, how to stop an emission
of about 6 Gigaton Carbon a year into atmosphere
at shortest possible notice. This is about 22 gigaton
CO2 a year.
This means, that three very different kinds of emissions
should be stopped:
a. from fossil fuels
b. from land use (agriculture and urban environment)
c. from landchange use.
It is clear from rising CO2 levels, that current biosphere is
UNABLE to absorb this 6 gigaton Carbon,
so we must create effective measures which ultimately
prevent ANY CO2 emission by fossil fuels.
These measures may at least NEVER stimulate emission
by land and landchange use.
The proposal is, when giving carboncredits to any industry who
feels a need to emit CO2 from fossil fuels, to do it only
when an equivalent amount is stored in such a way that it
never gets back in atmosphere again.
As biosphere seemed to be in equilibrium before
peatmining started in Europe in 11th century, we must be
extremely reluctant in allowing the industry to buy Carbon
Credits for storing Carbon in current biosphere.
The strategy should be, to restore biosphere which was
present on our planet in the year 1000 AD as soon as
possible and to devote some creative thinking to the
problem how to get CO2 content at this preindustrial
level of the year 1000 AD.
These are not be the same problems, however, they
might be interrelated.
Peatforests are storing carbon all the time, converting
biomass into peat. So these peatforests are the most
important "old forests" to protect. Kalimantan is very
important in this regard.
However, all other forests should be protected as well,
although they might be in a state of equilibrium only.
Perhaps they can be changed into peatforests by some
changes in watermanagement.
So it seems appropriate to restrict the right to buy carbon
credits for permission to release of CO2 from fossil fuels
only to the following cases:
1. maintenance and protection of Peat Forests
2. turning old forests into Peat Forests.
3. research and start-up costs for having forests grow where
they NEVER grew before and do it in such a way as to
cause them to extend areal out of themselves.
4. Start-up costs for Urban Forestry.
5. reafforestation of area's which were deforested before 1992
6. fines and taxation for ANY deforestation in 21th century, that is
after december 31, 2000
It is further my conviction, that artificial planting of forests
never creates that sequestring power that natural growth
So the use and design of huge treeplanting machines to
cover large areas with trees is not the solution, although
these machines might be useful for small corridors along
main roads. But not for large areas, as they tend to fix
nature for decades in a non-natural way.
So if we wish to stimulate forest growth, then we must
do so by stimulating natural processes of forest growth.
Forest wildlife, birds and insects have an important role
which should never be overlooked - and once these
processes of fauna mobilisation for forest growth are
understood, forests might grow at much higher speed
and less costs then doing it with the help of machines.
Costa Rica is gaining experience with this approach,
and Indonesia might be a.
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