Yugoslav analyze 01, March 1999.


While we tried to continue with our job, the World got shaken again. During the recent Bosnia crisis Milosevic is given all possibilities to strengthen his own position, and now he became some more: a NATO try-your-strength-machine.
I remember George Soros who had a lot of critics on the UN, but in the same time he mentioned it had to be supported, "it's the best thing we have". He got ignored more often, and this time NATO is doing it once more and at what strength. What a complication.

In Sarajevo the general atmosphere shows happiness about the NATO bombings. Quite logical considering the recent history with the Serbs. But most thoughts are based on revenge. In the meantime a negative advice goes out in relation with travelling to Republika Srpska where people are incensed about the fact that NATO is allowed to attack another country.

There are some arguments which support that concern.

At first you might wonder whether this action will solve the problem Milosevic (!) or not. Personally I think not. I think more people will be driven into the arms of Milosevic.
Secondly you might wonder whether this action will solve the problems in Kosovo or not. Again, I think not. I think it will only radicalise the situation more and more. Think about the Kurds. They too were victims of a brutal ruler but when the (western) solution came there, they got sent into the mountains and nobody really cared. Yes, there was a photographer who won the World Press Photo prize with it so we might forget in 15 years instead of in 5. The right of self-determination for Kosovars ? Since when is this an aim for the international community ? I believe the Kosovars are a good bait, wanted by the West. But the bait will be eaten and in the rest of the story it will not be mentioned anymore. In the case of Iraq the inspections for weaponry became the main reason to attack Iraq again, of less interest was the situation of the Kurds.

Third I think a dangerous precedent is created if it will be allowed that NATO, founded to protect itself, is going to fight for their self-interest. A giant army is created for self-interest and personally I am completely unhappy with that. In that sense I share the concern of the Russians, the Indians, the Chinese and the Indonesian.
I do not think I have a solution for this immensely complicated problem. A kamikaze diplomat though could be much cheaper and much more effective.
Also I think, like many people do, that the Serbian people themselves must make an end to the power of Milosevic. But they were not supported very much and are not still. I do not expect it is going to happen - again referring to the Golf-war.

Maybe I will change my opinion but for now I think it is very arrogant and selfish, short-minded and even naive to think that the western powers are finally supporting those who need help.
I suggest to install a 20 year of status quo on the complete planet to avoid that a change of the same dimensions will take place but accompanied by an enormous amount of violence.
In the meantime I wish humanity good luck, strength and peace for the future. May ideology win from pragmatism since pragmatism represents too much self-interest.