*BH PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS 2000
If you remember, at the beginning of this year there was a fact
mentioned in POO newsletter that the year 2000 could be a turning-point
for the ex-Yugoslavia political situation. The fact that there are
elections going on in each of the former Yugoslavia republics, says
enough. Also, there is a high degree of discontent with the
nationalistic power in the post-war, economically and socially ruined
society. It is almost a degree of unbearability, if it could be said in
public (depending on a case, of course).
We cannot read the future - we do not really have to - the situation is
simple enough. Fortunately, nationalistic concepts are being defeated
more and more often. It is moving slowly but still nationalist societies
are making more space for civil society.
Of course the government is changing but the theory on "rotation of
shit", stated in one pre-election meeting in Croatia in December 1999
in Zagreb Faculty of Philosophy, can find its justification in local
reality. The differences are very small - does the new shit "stink" less
and does it leave more space for the liberal political activists from
ex-Yugoslav countries. This description of the situation might seem a
little bit harsh or too vulgar... Even if someone thinks that way - the
political reality will be enough to prove him wrong. Reality that
"stinks".
That is enough for the introduction - the main news is: the OSCE Mission
to Bosnia and Herzegovina announced the official beginning of the
pre-election campaign for the November elections. At the local
elections, in April this year, the OSCE appealed to people to "vote for
changes". Was it because of their motto, unhappiness of local voters or
something third, I do not know, but still the nationalist parties got
much less votes than in the previous elections. Although not
exclusively. Everyone hopes that the November elections for the
Parliament, under a motto "Let's Outvote the Corruption", can make even
greater change in favour of the civil political parties. This refers to
SDP BiH especially, the favorites of the International Community. The
party led by a controversial Zlatko Lagumdzija. Popularity of him and
his party is growing respectively with the news on the negative sides of
their politics. Is SDP really the best solution for BiH or it is just
one more to come in the process of the rotation... Of course, instead of
answering this question, I suppose that the most of the BH voters will
vote according to a principle "vote YES and than vote NO if YES turns
out to be bad". But there is nothing strange about this because this is
how the election process has been functioning for years.
We cannot ignore the fact that, once the largest party, SDA is loosing
more and more popularity and is becoming a political outsider. That is
not strange if we keep in mind the desasterous politics they led for the
past ten years. As they said themselves in the last campaign - they gave
the worst ten years to their people. And the people learns sometime...
At least I hope so...
It is interesting that the status of HDZ party is not so firm any
more... Jadranko Prlic, the "pro-Westerner" left the party after the
public correspondence with Ante Jelavic. It is unknown how many of the
hard-core HDZ voters will remain loyal to their last election choice.
It is also difficult to predict the election results in Republika
Srpska. The best proof for this can be seen through the spring election
success of SDS. Has Milorad Dodik, now ex first man of the RS
government, as one of the candidates for the President of RS, enough
political (and other) power to win his opponents. Regardless of the
result, the "rotation" wil be complete. No doubt about it. Especially if
we keep in mind Dodik's political and moral references.
Ending this part with a dose of pre-election speculations and thoughts,
we announce further follow-up of the pre-, post-, and general election
situation in BiH.
*ASSASSINS OF JOZO LEUTAR ARRESTED?
Another step in the past. The assassination of Jozo Leutar took place in
Sarajevo, on March 16, 1999. The deputy minister of the Federal police
department died a few days after the car-bomb expolosion. Everyone
rushed to accuse "the others" for the assassination. Croats were
accusing the Bosniaks and the other way around. Numerous world criminal
services were involved in the investigation, and the International
Community officials promised a quick revelation of those who ordered and
performed the assassination. And then there was silence, disturbed from
time to time by a new promise of those internationalists - "assassins
will be known soon and put behind bars". The cooperation between Croat
and political officials was quickly renewed, as it usually happens, and
as it is usually renewed or broken *depending on the current political
interests and situations).
Still, the "soon" has recently come true. SFOR arrested several Bosnian
Croats during September. Some of them were arrested because they are
wanted in the Hague. And some were arrested because they were, what a
surprise, connected to the Leutar assassination. And the most important
one among them is Ivan Andabak - a new kind of a drug dealer by
profession.
According to those who are familiar with the situation, Leutar payed the
price with his life because he had confronted Andabak and the goup of
his people - a small number of them, that were also arrested in
September. This group of people was close to the local HDZ and the Croat
nationalist idea. Of course, their think-alikes stated that the whole
action was performed before the November elections with a purpose to
cause damage to a "certain" side. The court investigation will prove if
that was really the case. Un officially, Andabak was arrested in Croatia
for smuggling 660 kg of cocain. Also unofficially, Leutar lost his life
because he tried to confront the criminals from "his own people".
If the process against Leutar's assassins ends successfully, it will be
a precedant in the post-war Bosnian judicial system. Of course, like in
the case of the election results, the following months will show how
determent and capable our law institutions are in the attempt to bring
justice to the surface. I hope that in the favor of this goes the fact
that there is a charge of murder against Ismet Bajramovic Celo, who has
been in prison for several months. And his name is a synonim for
organized mafia and criminal in BiH.
*RS - NO PRESIDENT AND NO GOVERNMENT
If Republika Srpska was a state and not an entity, it would probably be
mentioned in a book like "Guinness Records"... And here is why. To
remind you, RS does not have a president since last March, after the
International Community fired Nikola Poplasen. The agreement on a new
president was never made. Which is not so surprising... Because, when
the whole country is functioning only in fiction and outside of the
institutions, the lack of a president, even an entity president, plays
no important role.
Still in September, the RS Parliament decided not to stop there. There
was a nonconfidence voted in the government of Milorad Dodik. And there
is no new government. Summary in this case - there is an entity, but no
president, there is an entity, but no government. But even that is not
disturbing in todays BiH. That same government of RS has not be legal
for months - according to the election results a year ago the entity
president was supposed to elect the new mandator for the RS government.
And RS does not have a president... And so on... While he was a
president, Nikola Poplasen suggested three mandators for the new
government. Not one of them was appropriate. In the meantime, the "old
one" - Dodik, has become a central power figure in RS. "It is not
important that the entity does not have a president - it has me" Dodik
would say. And the International Community supports him. Because,
publicly Dodik is all for multi... and prosperity. Even though the
foreigners themselves know that ther is no difference betweenhim and
nationalistic parties of RS (except in the package). And Dodik's
"package" is much easier for the West to swallow.
They say that Milosevic is standing behind Dodik's replacement... Maybe,
but... Still it is evident that there is much more fighting for the
power within the entity. This is a very important game before the
up-coming elections. Healthy political analysts would say that Dodik's
replacement was necessary because of his terrible politics (terrible for
RS and the citizens while very correct and good for Dodik and those
around him). But the voice of the "healthy plitical analysts" is the
least relevant here. What is relevant is the political interest. It is
interesting that the RS parliament replaced Dodik's government and after
that asked them to remain in the function until the new elections. Dodik
refused this and it appears to be logical. Since he is hoping to win the
RS presidential elections in November.
After all this, it seems there will be no new RS government until the
November elections. And the OHR was not too much concerned about this.
They probably got used to this as well...
*ALIJA IZETBEGOVIC - EX (?!)
One of three thirds of the Presiding body of BiH, Alija Izetbegovic, if
we were to believe those who know more information, could have gotten a
title "ex" not long ago. But not because of a replacement or differences
within his party, but because of his health condition... During the
Millenium Summit in New York, Izetbegovic was hospitalized for
pneumonia. And more problems with his bad health condition which has
been a public secret for a long time. The only question is whether or
not Izetbegovic is ready to admit to the public and to himself that it
is time to retire. And his retirement has been announced a long time
ago.
Let us remind you... Izetbegovic announced that he was leaving the
presidency in October, including the leaving of the whole political
scene. Of course, one never knows with Alija. Does a last time mean one
more... As it was the case before. Still it seems that Alija Izetbegovic
really could retire, due to his bad conditin and bad position of his
party SDA. Retirement into history - the history of bad politics for the
past ten years in Bosnia and Herzegovina. He would gladly leave,
especially if he could put someone dear to his position. Someone so
dear that has to wear the unpopular name of Edhem Bicakcic. Everything
is open for speculations...
The October retirement seems very sure, more than ever before. Actually,
the option "once more and once more after that" would endanger his
current political reputation even more. Sometimes it is just better to
step down. We are hoping that he understands that. It is time.
